The digital dividend in agriculture: evidence from vietnam’s export sector

• ICT has a paradoxical negative overall impact on agricultural exports in Vietnam. • A key ICT threshold determines if digitalization helps or hurts farm exports. • Below the threshold, ICT development is a significant catalyst for exports. • Above the threshold, a negative impact suggests a structural misalignment. • A one-size-fits-all digitalization policy for agriculture is ineffective. In recent years, Vietnam has seen a number of changes due to digitalization, particularly in the agricultural sector. The analysis used the Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) approach and a dynamic panel threshold model using data from 63 Vietnamese provinces between 2012 and 2022. The results showed that agricultural exports consistently had a beneficial impact on ICT over the course of time, but agricultural exports harmed. Additionally, the ICT threshold quantity is 0.54. ICT has a favorable effect on agricultural exports below the threshold but a detrimental effect above it. These results are in line with the fact that, compared to centrally administered cities, the majority of Vietnam's agricultural, forestry, and fisheries-focused provinces have lower degrees of digital transformation. In contrast, provinces with above-threshold ICT levels place more emphasis on industrial and service growth, which reduces ICT's direct impact on forestry, fishery, and agriculture. In order to promote agricultural digitalization practices, governments must prioritize investments in digitization. They must also create rules that balance interests and increase local output and export capacity.