Social media marketing and digital influence for visitor flow management in sustainable heritage tourism

Chinese cultural heritage sites face severe overtourism challenges, necessitating innovative management approaches. This study examines associations between social media marketing and visitor flow management and its potential contribution to sustainable heritage tourism. Through empirical analysis of five major Chinese sites (Forbidden City, Temple of Heaven, Giant Wild Goose Pagoda, Terracotta Warriors, and Mogao Grottoes), combining 507 visitor questionnaires with 100,000 social media posts, this research employs PLS-SEM modeling to examine dual pathways of association. Findings reveal that 78.3% of tourists rely on social media information for itinerary planning, with 67.4% willing to adjust visit timing based on real-time crowd information. Path analysis identifies a cognitive-informational pathway where perceived usefulness (β = 0.452) and information timeliness (β = 0.387) are directly associated with tourist response willingness while also showing indirect associations via decision confidence (β = 0.312 and β = 0.287, respectively), alongside an affective-social pathway where information source credibility (β = 0.268) and platform interaction (β = 0.195) are associated with response willingness via emotional resonance (β = 0.183). Past travel experience negatively moderates these associations (β= - 0.156). These findings support the potential of digital strategies to advance SDG 8.9, 11.4, and 12.b targets, offering implications for cultural heritage management.