Progressive eastward rupture of the Main Marmara fault toward Istanbul

The Main Marmara fault (MMF) in northwestern Türkiye poses the highest seismic risk in broader Europe. The 2025 moment magnitude (<i>M</i><sub>W</sub>) 6.2 event was the largest earthquake along the MMF in >60 years. We integrated observations from multiple temporal scales including the decade-long evolution of <i>M</i> > 5 earthquakes, their rupture dynamics, and aftershock patterns. We show a series of eastward-propagating <i>M</i> > 5 events and a gradual eastward partial rupture of the MMF over the past ~15 years. The seismically active portion of the fault includes creeping and transitional segments with some of the most recent seismicity located near the presumably locked Princes' Islands segment south of Istanbul that has the potential to generate a <i>M</i> ~7 earthquake. Our analysis highlights the necessity of real-time monitoring of this part of the MMF.

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Publication Details

Journal
Science
Published
2025-12-11
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adz0072
Primary Topic
earthquake and tectonic studies
Type
article
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article

Progressive eastward rupture of the Main Marmara fault toward Istanbul

Yehuda Ben‐Zion, Elif Türker, Xiang Chen, Filiz Tuba Kadirioğlu et al.
Science
earthquake and tectonic studies
article

Progressive eastward rupture of the Main Marmara fault toward Istanbul

Yehuda Ben‐Zion, Elif Türker, Xiang Chen, Filiz Tuba Kadirioğlu, Recai Feyiz Kartal, Dirk Becker, Patricia Martínez‐Garzón, Jorge Jara, Marco Bohnhoff, Tuğbay Kılıç, Fabrice Cotton, Georg Dresen, Sebastián Núñez-Jara
article en

Abstract

The Main Marmara fault (MMF) in northwestern Türkiye poses the highest seismic risk in broader Europe. The 2025 moment magnitude (<i>M</i><sub>W</sub>) 6.2 event was the largest earthquake along the MMF in >60 years. We integrated observations from multiple temporal scales including the decade-long evolution of <i>M</i> > 5 earthquakes, their rupture dynamics, and aftershock patterns. We show a series of eastward-propagating <i>M</i> > 5 events and a gradual eastward partial rupture of the MMF over the past ~15 years. The seismically active portion of the fault includes creeping and transitional segments with some of the most recent seismicity located near the presumably locked Princes' Islands segment south of Istanbul that has the potential to generate a <i>M</i> ~7 earthquake. Our analysis highlights the necessity of real-time monitoring of this part of the MMF.

ScienceVol. 391(6783)
University of Southern California (US), Statewide California Earthquake Center (US), Universität Hamburg (DE), University of Potsdam (DE), Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (US), Presidency University (BD), GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences (DE), Freie Universität Berlin (DE), RWTH Aachen University (DE), Ruhr University Bochum (DE)
Openalex Percentile: Top 58%
earthquake and tectonic studies
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