Leveraging energy performance certificate models as a basis for dynamic simulation modelling of decarbonisation strategies in primary healthcare buildings

This study investigates the potential of leveraging data from existing SBEM (Simplified Building Energy Model) energy certification models to generate dynamic simulation models for decarbonisation analysis. A case study of a healthcare centre in London was used to demonstrate the approach. The existing SBEM model was adapted into a dynamic performance model and tuned using measured energy data. The tuned model was then employed to simulate a range of refurbishment scenarios. Results indicate that achieving net-zero emissions will require a combination of building envelope upgrades, technical system improvements, and the installation of photovoltaic (PV) panels. To mitigate future overheating risks under projected climate scenarios, additional measures such as external shading or active cooling may also be necessary. To assess the scalability and accuracy of the method, the same approach was automated and applied to 164 additional NHS properties for stock-level assessments. At the stock level, simulated energy consumption closely matched measured averages across the portfolio. However, performance gaps in some individual buildings highlight the need for further investigation into SBEM model accuracy or refinement of model inputs to ensure reliable predictions when assessments are conducted at the building level. Practical application The National Health Service (NHS) aims to reduce its direct carbon emissions by 80% between 2028 and 2032 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2040. To support this target, it is essential to evaluate the current performance of NHS buildings and assess the impact of potential refurbishment measures. However, developing detailed dynamic simulation models for each property across the extensive NHS estate is time-consuming and resource-intensive. This study investigates the extent to which existing SBEM models, readily available through the UK’s building energy certification scheme, can be adapted and used as a data source to generate dynamic simulation models. These models can then support the assessment of refurbishment strategies at scale. The approach offers a practical and scalable solution for informing decarbonisation planning across large healthcare estates.