Anticipating radioactive waste: A forecast for the Philippines' upcoming nuclear energy

This study forecasts annual radioactive waste arisings for a Philippine baseline deployment of a ∼1200 MWe light-water reactor (LWR), with emphasis on high-level waste (HLW; spent fuel), intermediate-level waste (ILW), and low-level waste (LLW). The objective is to inform infrastructure planning, regulatory preparedness, and long-term waste management. A desk review synthesized unit-normalized data from reactors of comparable capacity in China, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America, integrating internationally recognized benchmarks with country-specific operating information. Waste classes follow IAEA GSG-1. Indicative ranges are HLW: ∼18–33.6 tons/yr (dependent on fuel management, burnup, and capacity factor), ILW: ∼2–79 m 3 /yr (dominated by resins, filters, and selected activated components), and LLW: ∼30–250 m 3 /yr, with variance driven by burnup, capacity factor, coolant chemistry, purification practice, and outage schedule. These ranges provide defensible inputs for sizing storage, treatment/conditioning, transport, and disposal systems, and for aligning regulatory preparedness with IAEA safety requirements. Early adoption of HLW, ILW, and LLW management provisions based on these planning values will help safeguard public health and the environment while enabling a safe, economically credible introduction of nuclear power in the Philippines and supporting long-term policy and financing decisions.