Technological substitution or complementarity? New digital infrastructure and agricultural emissions

This research investigates how regional and agricultural system characteristics condition the impact of new digital infrastructure on agricultural carbon emissions across 30 Chinese provinces from 2012 to 2022. A new digital Infrastructure index is developed using entropy weighting, and fixed-effects models with instrumental variable estimation are employed to address endogeneity. Results reveal that new digital Infrastructure is significantly associated with lower emissions across six major sources. However, higher levels of agricultural agglomeration and mechanization weaken this association, indicating substitution rather than complementarity. The effects are more pronounced in less developed western regions and vary between major grain-producing and non-grain-producing areas. These findings align with technological leapfrogging theory, suggesting that digital investments yield greater environmental benefits in regions with moderate agricultural development. The analysis offers evidence on the conditional efficacy of new digital Infrastructure for agricultural decarbonization. Policymakers are advised to prioritize digital agriculture investments in regions where they address coordination and information gap.