Spatiotemporal Analysis of Groundwater Storage Changes and Its Driving Factors in the Semi-Arid Region of the Lower Chenab Canal

Groundwater depletion is among the most critical hydrological threats to sustainable agriculture and water security in semi-arid regions. This study presents a high-resolution, multi-sensor assessment of groundwater storage (GWS) dynamics across the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) command area in Punjab, Pakistan—an intensively irrigated agro-hydrological system within the Indus Basin. We integrated downscaled GRACE/GRACE-FO-derived total water storage anomalies with CHIRPS precipitation, MODIS evapotranspiration (ET) and vegetation indices, TerraClimate soil moisture, land surface temperature (LST), land use/land cover (LULC), and population density using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to reconstruct spatiotemporal GWS changes from 2002 to 2020. The results reveal a persistent and accelerating decline in groundwater levels, averaging 0.52 m yr−1, which intensified to 0.73 m yr−1 after 2014. Cumulative GWS losses exceeded 320 mm yr−1, with severe depletion (up to −3800 mm) in northern districts such as Sheikhupura, Gujranwala, and Narowal. Validation with borewell data (R2 = 0.87; NSE = 0.85) confirms the reliability of the remote sensing estimates. Statistical analysis indicates that anthropogenic drivers (population growth, urban expansion, and intensive irrigation) explain over two-thirds of the observed variability (R2 = 0.67), whereas precipitation contributes only marginally (R2 = 0.28), underscoring the dominance of human-induced stress over climatic variability. The synergistic rise in evapotranspiration, land surface temperature, and cultivation of high-water-demand crops such as rice and sugarcane has further amplified hydrological imbalance. This study establishes an operational framework for integrating satellite and ground-based observations to monitor aquifer stress at basin scale and highlights the urgent need for adaptive, data-driven groundwater governance in the Indus Basin. The approach is transferable to other data-scarce semi-arid regions facing rapid aquifer depletion, aligning with the global targets of Sustainable Development Goal 6 on water sustainability.