Global habitat suitability of invasive weed <i>Xanthium spinosum</i> L. under CMIP6 climate projections: implications for future infestation and management

Invasive plant species pose significant threats to biodiversity, ecological integrity, and agricultural productivity. Xanthium spinosum L. is a globally distributed weed, exerting adverse impacts on crop production and biodiversity. Hence, predicting habitat suitability under future climate scenarios is essential for its effective management and halting further spread. This study used MaxEnt model with 8,289 global occurrence records and 10 bioclimatic variables to predict habitat suitability for X. spinosum under current and future CMIP6 climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Model exhibited excellent performance (AUC > 0.90, TSS = 0.90). Annual mean temperature and precipitation of the driest quarter significantly influenced habitat suitability. Highly suitable habitats were predicted in Mediterranean and subtropical areas globally, particularly in southern Europe, Türkiye, and temperate North America. Northward and altitudinal expansions of highly suitable habitats were predicted under SSP5-8.5. Moderate range expansions were predicted under SSP1-2.6, highlighting future spread risk even under SSP1-2.6. The results indicated an increasing spread risk of X. spinosum, particularly in temperate and semi-arid regions. The projected range expansion under climate change necessitates careful monitoring, rapid response measures, and improved global collaboration. Innovative weed management techniques will be critical to alleviate ecological and agricultural impacts linked to X. spinosum.