Quantifying Dynamic Water-Saving Thresholds Through Regulating Irrigation: Insights from an Integrated Hydrological Model of the Hetao Irrigation District

Agricultural irrigation accounts for nearly 70% of global freshwater withdrawals, making sustainable water management crucial for food security and ecological stability—particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. However, dynamic water-saving thresholds at both inter-annual and intra-annual scales remain insufficiently quantified in current research. To address this gap, this study developed an integrated SWAT-MODFLOW model for the Hetao Irrigation District and quantified dynamic water-saving thresholds by simulating crop yield responses under a range of irrigation scenarios. The model was calibrated (2008–2014) and validated (2014–2016), demonstrating reliable performance (R2 = 0.75, NSE = 0.74) in capturing local hydrological processes. Inter-annual scenarios assessed water-saving levels of 5%, 10%, 20%, and 30% under wet, normal, and dry years, while intra-annual scenarios adjusted seasonal irrigation volumes in spring, summer, and autumn with reduction gradients of 33%, 50%, and 100%. Results show that wet and normal years could achieve a water-saving threshold of up to 20%, whereas dry years were limited to 5%. Intra-annually, autumn irrigation offered the greatest saving potential (33–100%), followed by spring (33–50%). Spatially, crop responses varied substantially: the western part of the region proved particularly sensitive, with even the optimal district-wide strategy reducing local crop yields by 10–20%. This study quantifies dynamic water-saving thresholds and incorporates spatial heterogeneity into scenario assessment. The resulting framework is transferable and provides a basis for sustainable water management in water-limited agricultural regions.