Exploring ICT as an Engine for Sustainable Economic Growth in Central Asia

This study investigates whether information and communication technology (ICT) constitutes a sustained driver of economic growth in four Central Asian economies—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—over the period 2000–2022. Using an extended endogenous growth framework, this study employs the following long-run growth model: economic growth is specified as a function of ICT development, gross capital formation, trade openness, human capital, government effectiveness, and inflation. A composite ICT index is constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Long-run relationships are examined using a panel cointegration approach, and long-run elasticities are estimated using FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR techniques. The results reveal that ICT development exerts a negative and statistically significant effect on economic growth in the long run, indicating limited technological absorptive capacity and insufficient institutional readiness in the region. In contrast, capital formation, trade openness, human capital, and government effectiveness positively and significantly promote growth, while inflation hampers economic performance. The findings suggest that ICT investment alone is insufficient for sustainable growth without complementary institutional strengthening, human capital development, digital skills enhancement, improved broadband quality, and governance reforms to increase the productive use of ICT.