Assessing the Effects of International Sanctions on Conflict-Induced Refugee Flows

Abstract Recent research demonstrates that there exists significant variation in the number of refugees that civil wars generate. We believe that two types of sanctions play a nontrivial role in partly explaining this variation. We argue that imposed military sanctions have a negative impact on the flow of refugees, as these sanctions reduce warring parties’ ability and willingness to use violence against civilians to achieve their political objectives. The constraints on critical revenues caused by economic sanctions, however, increase refugee flows, as they compel targets to replenish lost income using violence and exploitation of civilian populations. Using mediation analysis, we find that each sanction type has the expected effect on refugee flows via their impact on violence against civilians.