Modelling the Dynamic Effects of Climate-related Risks on Long and Healthy Living: Evidence from Nigeria

The prevalence and severity of climate risks in oil-rich nations, including Nigeria, have generated considerable interest in understanding their implications for longevity and public health. Accordingly, this study investigates the influence of climate risks, particularly carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions from gas, methane, and oil sources, on healthy and long life, with a specific focus on life expectancy in Nigeria. Annual time series data obtained from the World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme Human Development Report were analysed employing descriptive statistics, pre-estimation tests such as unit root and cointegration tests, and the least-squares estimation method. The results indicate that while the short-term impact of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from gas on life expectancy is negative but statistically insignificant, the long-term impact is positive and statistically significant at the 5% level. This underscores the long-term benefits of transitioning to cleaner, modern gas resources to enhance life expectancy at birth. Furthermore, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from methane were found to negatively affect life expectancy in both the short- and long-term. This suggests that methane-related emissions diminish the lifespan of the Nigerian population. Similarly, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from oil production were observed to significantly reduce life expectancy, highlighting the adverse effects of oil production on public well-being. In light of these findings, this study recommends that the government promote the transition to clean, modern gas for electricity generation, cooking, and transportation, thereby improving the life expectancy of the Nigerian population. Additionally, policymakers should ensure the enforcement of methane-specific regulations through stricter penalties, consistent monitoring, and transparent reporting to mitigate the increasing CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from methane and their associated impact on life expectancy.