Predicting disability pension risk among public‐sector employees in Finland: A new evaluation tool for employers

Abstract In this study, we use unique research data to investigate the risk of exit from the workforce on the grounds of the award of a disability pension under the statutory public‐sector pension scheme in Finland. Statistical analysis yields two indicators: the risk for permanent disability retirement and the critical duration of sickness absence days in public‐sector occupations. The analysis is based on a logistic regression model where the outcome is retirement on a disability pension, with sickness benefit spells and other individual background information used as covariates. The results underline the importance of minimizing sickness absences and their duration and reveal differences in the risk rate between occupations. We conclude that the proposed risk model is a promising tool that can help employers and the pension industry prevent permanent disability.