Compounding of 100-year coastal floods by rainfall in an urban environment

Abstract Coastal and pluvial flooding are both becoming more prevalent and severe due to climate change and urbanization in floodplains. The co-occurrence of these flood drivers is generally assumed to exacerbate the resulting flood impacts, a result referred to as compound flooding. However, few observational or modeling studies have investigated the circumstances under which this occurs. Here, we study the impacts of these combined flood drivers and evaluate the implicit hypothesis of official flood maps, which is that rainfall has a negligible impact on the flood depth and flooded area due to a 100 year coastal flood. A coastal system model, configured to capture coastal and pluvial flood drivers, is used. We evaluate the flooding for different urban landform types, including coastal landfill (human-made land), convergent areas (topographic depressions) and other urban terrain, within a model domain covering the Jamaica Bay watershed of New York City. A scenario-based strategy is adopted with a 100 year coastal flood as a control simulation, to which we add a set of realistic scenarios of rainfall data from historical tropical cyclones. We also apply a joint probability analysis framework with historical data to evaluate the probability of these compound coastal-pluvial scenarios. Results reveal cases where the pluvial driver compounds the coastal flood through expansion of the flood zone, with a 17% chance of rainfall increasing the flood area by 6%–38%, and a 5% chance of an increase of 61%–73%. It is rare that floods are significantly deepened but when deepening occurs, it is more common for the convergent zone than for the coastal landfill. These findings quantitatively assess the potential of the pluvial driver to exacerbate flooding, which may influence emergency management strategies such as evacuation plans, shelter arrangements, and related preparedness measures.