Regional green transition under dual-carbon goals: Deconstruction, clustering, and evolution of carbon emissions in China

Synergizing the relationship between environmental crisis, economic development, and social progress within different regions is of great significance for the green transformation of different regions and industries under the dual-carbon goal. This research provided a novel analytical model of "comprehensive deconstruction-clustering characteristics-regional evolution" based on the Log-Mean Division Index (LMDI) method to address the differences of regions in Chinese provinces. On this basis, different regions are comprehensively analyzed using economic, social, energy, and carbon emission data of Chinese provinces between 2004 and 2019. The carbon emissions of different provinces and cities with different characteristics are also deconstructed and analyzed from multiple perspectives, including energy structure, energy intensity, economic development, and population size. Based on the obtained industrial structure contribution ratio and industrial carbon emission ratio, provinces with similar characteristics were analyzed by region clustering. Moreover, the carbon emission trends of representative typical provincial and municipal industries are studied by considering three industries as the demarcation points. Finally, some energy saving and emission reduction suggestions are proposed from five perspectives, including tertiary industry, secondary industry, energy distribution, industrial distribution, and low GDP, combining with the current popular carbon trading market system. • Built a “deconstruction–clustering–evolution” model for provincial carbon drivers using the LMDI method. • Decomposed provincial carbon emissions by energy structure, intensity, economic level, and population. • Clustered provinces with similar industrial and emission features for comparative analysis. • Identified key provincial emission trends and proposed targeted mitigation strategies.