Moral panic and the legislative attack on transgender rights: state-level pathways to anti-trans Lawmaking in the U.S

Abstract In recent years, the United States has experienced a surge in anti-trans legislation, with numerous states advancing laws that restrict transgender individuals’ access to healthcare, education, and public life. This study advances a novel framework grounded in moral panic theory to explain the conditions under which such legislation emerges. We conceptualize this policy wave as a strategically constructed moral panic, orchestrated by elite actors to reassert control amid perceived social and political disruption. Our multidimensional framework identifies three pathways through which moral panic is activated: (1) cultural conflict and symbolic threat construction, (2) political polarization and institutional capture, and (3) economic precarity and neoliberal retrenchment. Using state-level data AND negative binomial regression models, we analyze predictors of anti-trans legislation introduced in 2024. Results show that conservative partisan dominance and the presence of conservative networks are the strongest predictors of legislative activity, while higher LGBTQ+ support and stronger democratic safeguards are associated with legislative restraint. Economic disadvantage, investment in welfare and education, and prior legislative history are not associated with the number of bills introduced. These findings suggest that anti-trans policymaking reflects an engineered moral public escalation. The study contributes to theories of gender, politics, and moral regulation, underscoring the institutionalization of panic as a mode of governance.