Wind dataset assessment and energy estimation for potential future offshore wind farm development areas on the Scotian Shelf

Abstract. The Scotian Shelf is one of the top wind regions in the world. To assess the wind energy potential on the shelf, in this study we first assessed the uncertainties of four commonly used wind datasets – ERA5, CFSv2, NARR, and HRDPS – by comparing them against observational wind data from both nearshore and offshore sites. The assessment showed that the root mean square error (RMSE) of the datasets ranged from 1.6 to 2.4 m s−1 in wind speed and from 24.6 to 36.4° in wind direction. HRDPS performed best at the nearshore sites, while ERA5 was more accurate at the offshore sites. We then estimated the wind energy potential of six potential future development areas (PFDAs) on the shelf using ERA5. The estimates showed that wind energy varied seasonally, with summer wind energy production being 34 %–40 % lower than in winter. The uncertainties in wind datasets amplified the variation in wind energy production by up to 28 % in winter and 50 % in summer. The energy output was sensitive to turbine spacing due to wind wakes, which reduced energy production by 19 %–30 % in winter and 37 %–46 % in summer, depending on the configuration of wind speeds, wind directions, and the specific layout of the wind farms. This strong variation in wind energy output suggests that a more feasible operational method should be used to balance energy production and usage.