LINKING NATIONAL ROLE CONCEPTIONS TO FOREIGN POLICY BEHAVIOR: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF KAZAKHSTAN AND UZBEKISTAN

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, two pivotal Central Asian states with broadly similar geopolitical contexts, have pursued markedly different foreign policy trajectories since independence. This article asks whether leadership‑defined national role conceptions (NRCs) - the self‑ascribed roles articulated in elite discourse - help explain these divergences under comparable structural conditions. Grounded in Role Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis, the study treats NRCs as mid‑range, intervening frameworks that link systemic constraints and domestic politics to concrete choices, complementing realist and constructivist explanations rather than replacing them. Empirically, the article employs a most‑similar cases design and a content analysis of 100 presidential speeches and interviews by Nursultan Nazarbayev and Islam Karimov (1991-2016), coded using Naomi Wish’s refinement of Kalevi Holsti’s NRC typology. The resulting role profiles are then read against patterns of foreign policy behavior, including engagement with regional organizations and partnerships with Western institutions, as well as unilateral initiatives. The findings show that Nazarbayev constructed and performed a “Eurasian Bridge” role, emphasizing multilateralism, mediation, civilizational dialogue, and cooperative regionalism, reflected in Kazakhstan’s multi‑vector diplomacy and activism in regional and global fora. Karimov, by contrast, cultivated an “Independent Actor” role centered on sovereignty, regime security, and defensive self‑reliance, manifested in Uzbekistan’s selective, often reversible institutional commitments and guarded response to external influence. The article argues that these NRCs function as relatively stable scripts that mediate leaders’ responses to common geopolitical, economic, and regime‑security pressures, rather than as mere post‑hoc legitimation. The conclusion highlights the theoretical and methodological value of Role Theory for Central Asian foreign policy analysis. Then briefly traces how Nazarbayev’s and Karimov’s roles have been adapted, rather than abandoned, under Presidents Tokayev and Mirziyoyev, pointing to a shift toward “cautious bridging” and “cooperative independence”.