Mayors and votes in Rome in the “Second Republic”: an in-depth analysis

Introduction The year 1993 marks the transition from the First to the Second Italian Republic—a moment of profound political, economic, and social transformation that clearly divides the 1990s into a “before” and an “after.” At the centre of this shift is Law No. 81, which introduced the direct election of mayors and became a cornerstone of a paradigmatic change in local governance. Thirty years later, this article seeks to take stock of the transformations that have taken place over this period, offering a longitudinal analysis of electoral behaviour and political participation in the city of Rome. Methods The study draws on data provided by the Ministry of the Interior and the City of Rome. These data concern voting behaviour and electoral turnout from the 1990s to the present. They also cover the political spectrum (coalitions, lists, and parties), the role of the mayor, and the composition of the city council, with particular attention to the presence of women and the socio-political characteristics of the municipal—and by extension, administrative—classes. Results The study focuses on the nature of electoral competition and the evolution of political power across successive electoral cycles. It pays particular attention to the succession of mayors, the dynamics of their popular support, and how this support has been redefined, reshaped, and reduced over time. The analysis also examines changes in the political class, the composition of the city council and executive bodies, and how today’s “Roman politician” differs from that of the 1990s, including in terms of gender representation. Finally, the article reflects on the structure and legacy of Law No. 81, acknowledging its role in reshaping local government, but also questioning the current strength of its founding pact—namely, the one between citizens and the mayor. Discussion The study reveals a marked decline in voter turnout and a progressive erosion of popular support for the mayor. This trend points back to Law No. 81, which—although initially heralded as revolutionary for local governance—now appears somewhat outdated, or at least in need of revision. The founding “citizen–mayor pact” is increasingly fragile, and may be approaching an irreversible decline.