Perception of dominant predator shapes the spatiotemporal coexistence of mesocarnivores in agriculturally dominated landscapes

Mesocarnivores are the de-facto apex predators throughout many of the human-dominated landscapes of the Midwestern U.S.A. yet the degree of competition among these species remains poorly understood due to conflicting findings from different ecoregions and environmental contexts. To determine the spatiotemporal niche dynamics among sympatric mesocarnivores within human-dominated landscapes devoid of large carnivores, we analyzed data from a statewide camera trap network deployed autumn to spring of the years 2021/22–2023/24 in Illinois. We performed single-species and multi-species occupancy modeling, diel activity overlap analyses, and time-to-event analyses to determine spatial, temporal, and fine spatiotemporal relationships among mesocarnivores, humans, and domestic dogs (Canis lupus familiaris). We found that while most mesocarnivore species exhibited high niche overlap, red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) showed spatial avoidance of coyotes (Canis latrans), but sympatry increased with increasing agricultural land cover on the landscape. We also found bobcats (Lynx rufus), coyotes, and Northern raccoons (Procyon lotor) to avoid humans temporally and at fine spatiotemporal scales, while Northern raccoons also showed spatiotemporal avoidance of domestic dogs, highlighting the potential impact of free-roaming dogs on mesocarnivore behavior. Humans are the dominant predator on the landscape, with most species adapting their use of time and space to reduce potential encounters with humans, while red foxes appear to treat coyotes as the greater threat. Together, our results show that in agriculture-dominated landscapes, mesocarnivores structure their spatial and temporal activity to avoid the predator they perceive as most threatening—humans for non-canids, and coyotes for red foxes.