COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes: How does size influence transmission dynamics? A cross-sectional study with implications for outbreak management in small care homes

This cross-sectional study investigated how care home size influences COVID-19 transmission dynamics, focusing on outbreaks in England during the second wave of COVID-19 (Wave 2; December 2020 to March 2021) and the Omicron wave (December 2021 to February 2022). Using data from the UK Health Security Agency and the Care Quality Commission, positive SARS-CoV-2 test results were matched to care home registration and occupancy data, examining outbreak trajectories in homes of varying sizes and resident age groups. The study included over 90,000 positive cases across the two waves. Small care homes (SCHs, with 10 or fewer beds), predominantly housing younger adults, showed significantly higher early positivity rates: 42% of residents were positive at outbreak detection, rising to 61% by day 7. In contrast, larger homes had early positivity rates of only 3-6%. These findings suggest that SCHs, often designed for communal living, facilitate rapid within-home transmission similar to household settings. The study concludes that outbreak control strategies in SCHs should differ from those in larger care homes, emphasizing proportionate, individualized approaches that consider resident vulnerability and minimize disruption to social support systems. These results have broader implications for managing future infectious disease outbreaks and support the development of tailored guidance based on care home size and resident demographics.