Forest-savanna stability in India under human interventions and changing climate

Terrestrial vegetation, particularly forests and savannas, is vital for regulating water and carbon cycles; however, its resilience to climate change remains largely unexplored in India. Our study projects that global warming will increase the likelihood of a shift from forest to savanna-like conditions in major Indian forest regions by the late 21st century. Between 2001 and 2020, India’s tree cover grids declined from 30% to 28%, yet we observed non-climate-driven compositional shifts, with forests increasing from 7.2% to 8.6% and savannas from 9.2% to 11.7%. Nearly half of India’s landscape exhibits forest-savanna alternative states (unistable savanna), controlled by low (high) precipitation variability and seasonality. We found expansion of the savanna by the end of the century, driven by the model-projected increase in precipitation variability. However, targeted human interventions could mitigate these effects. Hence, strategic forest conservation policies will be crucial in safeguarding India’s forest ecosystems against climate change. Increased precipitation variability under global warming threatens India’s forests and drives a potential shift towards savanna, while strategic conservation can safeguard these ecosystems, as revealed by remote sensing data and scenario analyses.