Interpolation of Fire Radiative Power Based on GSTAR Model Predictions with Queen Contiguity Weights Using Ordinary Kriging

Forest fires are a persistent environmental issue in West Kalimantan, Indonesia, driven by both natural and human factors. Fire Radiative Power (FRP) serves as a vital indicator for assessing wildfire intensity and energy release. This study aims to model and predict the spatial temporal dynamics of FRP using the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive [GSTAR(1;1)] model combined with Ordinary Kriging interpolation. The dataset covers West Kalimantan from July 2024 to September 2025, comprising four attributes: observation date, longitude, latitude, and FRP value. Data filtering was applied from the national to provincial level, focusing on three regencies Sanggau, Sekadau, and Ketapang across 14 sub-districts represented by a 1.25×1.25 grid. The data consisted of 65 weekly observations, with 61 used for training and 4 for testing. The GSTAR(1;1) model with a spatial area-based framework achieved an optimal MAPE of 12.63% and satisfied the white noise assumption, indicating reliable performance. Predictions for October 2025 indicated relatively stable fire intensity, with a slight FRP decrease in Nanga Tayap and Sandai during the final week. Overall, the integrated GSTAR–Kriging framework effectively captured both temporal and spatial variations, supporting improved fire risk assessment and regional decision making for wildfire management in West Kalimantan.