Exploring management strategies for open‐country birds: A case study from a rice‐dominated landscape

Abstract Effective conservation management relies on accessing and integrating various forms of evidence regarding the potential effects of management interventions. Here, we aim to identify key management options to enhance habitat suitability and mitigate threats for grassland and farmland birds in the Central Plains of Thailand, a key area for open‐country birds in the region, using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) approach. We selected eight at‐risk passerine landbird species as focal taxa and developed up to nine scenarios to assess the potential impacts on the area of available suitable habitat for each species under different management options: a status quo scenario depicting the current situation, a future scenario if no action is taken, and up to seven scenarios each with management options. Three options focused on improving and/or maintaining habitat suitability, and the other four targeted threat mitigation. We then sought the best combination of management options, based on results from the above scenarios. The models predicted that each species would respond differently to each option depending on their ecological niches. If no action is taken in the near future, the highest quality habitats for all species were predicted to decrease from the current situation, with some species facing substantial habitat loss. For example, the globally Vulnerable Manchurian reed warbler Acrocephalus tangorum was predicted to lose nearly all of its highest suitability habitats (a 93% decline). The best conservation strategy involved implementing multiple management options, with tax incentives playing a particularly important role—and being the most effective measure for four species and the second most effective for the remaining four. Species‐specific responses varied; two species required fewer interventions, while others needed multiple concurrent management strategies. For instance, the highest suitability areas for the Manchurian reed warbler and Oriental skylark Alauda gulgula reached an asymptote when two management options were applied together, whereas species like the long‐tailed shrike Lanius schach required four interventions simultaneously. Our study underscores the advantages of this BBN approach for prioritizing optimal management strategies before implementation. It is adaptable for various decision‐making processes and can be applied to other species and agricultural systems, particularly those lacking baseline data.