Predicted suitable habitat distribution of major <i>Larix</i> species in the Northern Hemisphere under climate change scenarios

Abstract Larix spp. are the key dominant species in boreal and temperate forests of the Northern Hemisphere, playing a vital role in the global carbon cycle and ecosystem stability while being highly sensitive to climate change. In this study, we applied an ensemble modeling framework integrating 12 algorithms to assess the potential suitable habitats and centroid shifts of 10 Larix species across the Northern Hemisphere under current and future climate scenarios. Model performance was high (true skill statistic, receiver operating characteristic, and Kappa all &gt;0.9). Temperature, precipitation, and elevation were identified as the primary environmental drivers shaping species distributions. Substantial heterogeneity was observed in future habitat shifts: some species (e.g. Larix decidua, Larix sibirica, Larix lyallii ) are projected to undergo significant habitat contractions, while others (e.g. Larix potaninii, Larix gmelinii var. principis-rupprechtii ) may experience expansions. For most species, distribution centroids are expected to shift northeastward or northwestward, with more pronounced shifts under high-emission scenarios. These findings reveal the complex response patterns of Larix species to climate change and provide scientific insights for cross-regional forest conservation and adaptive management. We recommend prioritizing conservation of species projected to undergo substantial habitat contraction and safeguarding climate refugia to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.