Passenger Air Transport in Poland and Selected European Countries in the Face of COVID-19: A Post-Pandemic Comparative Analysis

Poland, as an important transit hub in Europe, has experienced a dynamic increase in the significance of air transport in recent years. However, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a severe collapse of passenger aviation worldwide. The aim of this study was to assess the condition of the passenger air transport market in Poland against the background of selected European countries in connection with the disruptions caused by the pandemic. The Holt–Winters models, based on pre-pandemic data, made it possible to forecast passenger transport volumes in the absence of the crisis and compare them with actual values to estimate losses and the extent of recovery. In the first three months after the outbreak, passenger losses ranged from 7.8 million in Sweden to 13.5 million in Portugal, while Poland recorded 10.9 million; after one year, cumulative losses in Poland reached 44.5 million. In addition, the pace of restoration of selected markets was evaluated. In 2022, Poland reached levels of up to 145% of its reference value, indicating one of the strongest restoration dynamics among the analyzed countries. The results show that all markets experienced sharp declines followed by a comparable rate of growth. The findings confirm Poland’s strengthening position in the European air transport system and highlight the need to build resilience to potential future crises.