Spatial Analysis of Extreme Coastal Water Levels and Dominant Forcing Factors Along the Senegalese Coast

Coastal flooding risk is intensifying under climate change, especially along the low sandy Senegalese coastline. This study explores the spatiotemporal variability of extreme coastal water levels (ECWL) from 1993 to 2023 by combining ERA5 reanalysis (waves, wind, pressure), tide gauge and meteorological data, and applying a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to estimate the 99th percentile and return levels for 50 and 100 year events. The analysis of the upper 1% of ECWLs reveals significant spatial heterogeneity: 99th percentile values exceed 1.2 m in the Dakar region (Yoff, Ouakam, Ngor) and around Saint-Louis/Langue de Barbarie, with 95% confidence intervals ranging from approximately 1.15 m to 1.30 m, while Casamance and the Saloum Delta exhibit much lower extremes (0.8–1.0 m). For return periods, ECWLs vary between 1.6 m and 2.3 m, with the 100 year return level (T100) exceeding 2.25 m in Dakar, above 2.0 m in Saint-Louis, and intermediate values (1.5–1.9 m) along the Petite Côte (Mbour–Toubab Dialaw) and in the Saloum Delta. The 50 year return level (T50) follows a similar spatial pattern but is 5–10 cm lower than T100 in the most exposed areas. Sensitivity analysis shows that ECWLs are primarily controlled by astronomical tide along much of the coast, whereas wave runup dominates in the southern estuarine zones (Saloum, Casamance, Mbour). Trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall test reveals a latitudinal gradient: stronger positive slopes in the south, weaker trends in central and northern sections, but all p values lie between 0.1 and 0.4, meaning none of the trends reach conventional significance. These findings point to a potential intensification of extreme water levels in socio-economically critical areas (Dakar, Saint-Louis, Mbour) but should be interpreted with caution given the lack of robust statistical significance. The results provide a quantitative basis for coastal risk management in light of projected sea level rise.