Activity based model based on AI to support the prediction of activity durations in metalworking project management

Abstract Effective project management is crucial to the success of any industry, particularly in metalworking, where deadlines, resources, and costs play critical roles. However, accurately predicting project execution times remains a significant challenge, directly impacting companies’ competitiveness and profitability. In this context, the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools emerges as a promising solution to improve the accuracy of time predictions and optimise project management in the metal-working industry. AI, particularly through techniques such as Machine Learning (ML), has demonstrated significant potential in predicting timeframes for engineering projects. Predictive activity-based models can be trained with historical data to identify patterns and forecast future durations with high accuracy. In the metalworking sector, where projects are often complex and subject to variability, AI can provide notable advantages in terms of precision and efficiency. This study aims to formulate an activity-based model, represented in IDEF0 (part of the Integration Definition for Function Modelling), for predicting activity durations using AI to support project management in the metalworking industry. By applying the principles of the IDEF0 tool, the objective is to develop a robust and adaptable system capable of analysing historical data, environmental factors, project characteristics, and other relevant inputs to produce more accurate time forecasts. With this work, we aim to contribute to the advancement of Project Management (PM) in the metal-working industry, particularly by providing an activity-based model to support the creation of an innovative AI tool for predicting execution times with greater accuracy.