Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network for Riverine Microplastic Migration Pathway Identification and Pollution Source Tracing

Microplastic pollution in riverine ecosystems poses critical environmental challenges, yet current modeling approaches inadequately capture the spatial heterogeneity and topological complexity of fluvial systems. This study develops an innovative spatiotemporal graph convolutional network (ST-GCN) framework that integrates hydrological connectivity, flow parameters, and microplastic characteristics for simultaneous migration pathway identification and pollution source tracing. This model constructs multi-scale graph representations encoding system structure and transport dynamics, implements spatial-temporal convolution layers with adaptive attention mechanisms, and employs a backpropagation-based algorithm for inverse source identification. Validation using 18 months of field observations from 45 monitoring nodes across a 127 km river reach demonstrates 87.3% pathway prediction accuracy and 94.3% source localization accuracy (R2 = 0.841, p < 0.001), representing substantial improvements over conventional advection–diffusion models. The framework successfully identified three pollution sources during a real contamination incident within 6 h of detection, enabling rapid regulatory intervention. This research advances environmental modeling by demonstrating that graph neural networks effectively capture transport processes in networked hydrological systems, providing practical tools for watershed management and evidence-based pollution control decision-making.