Structure and Evolution of the Global Financial Services Greenfield FDI Network: Complex System Analysis Based on the TERGM Model

Cross-border greenfield investment in the financial services sector is increasingly understood not as isolated flows, but as a complex, dynamic global system. This systemic perspective is essential for understanding its holistic structure and evolution amidst globalisation and digital transformation. This paper utilises financial services greenfield investment projects from 100 major economies from 2003 to 2021 to construct the Global Financial Services Greenfield FDI Network (GFS-GFN). By combining Social Network Analysis (SNA) and Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (TERGMs), we systematically investigate its dynamic evolutionary features and endogenous mechanisms. The findings reveal the following: (1) System-wide, the network exhibits persistent expansion, “small-world” properties, and a pronounced “rich club” effect among source countries. (2) Nodally, the structure has evolved from a US-UK “dual-core” to a multipolar configuration, as emerging hubs like China, the UAE, and Singapore rapidly approach the traditional centres. (3) Structurally, the network has fragmented from Euro-American dominance into five major communities, forming a diverse, complementary pattern. Network evolution is primarily driven by endogenous mechanisms. Investment relationships widely exhibit reciprocity, preferential attachment, transitive closure, and marked path dependence.