Probabilistic Power Flow Analysis of Wind-Integrated Power Systems Considering Frequency Risk Under Typhoon Disasters

Extreme disasters such as typhoons pose severe frequency stability challenges to modern power systems with a high penetration of new energy sources. Traditional probabilistic power flow (PPF) methods, which assume constant frequency, are insufficient for accurately capturing these risks. This paper proposes a PPF assessment method for wind-integrated power systems that considers system frequency characteristics under typhoon disasters. First, a probability model of wind power output uncertainty under typhoon disasters is constructed based on the hybrid adaptive kernel density estimation (HAKDE) method. Next, the frequency response characteristics are explicitly introduced, with the steady-state frequency deviation Δf utilized as the state variable for the PPF solution, and an extended cumulant method PPF model is thus established. This model can concurrently determine the probability distributions and statistical characteristics of nodal voltages, branch power flows, and the steady-state frequency of the system. Case studies on a modified IEEE 39-bus system demonstrate that the proposed method effectively quantifies frequency violation probabilities that are overlooked by traditional models.