Evaluating China’s carbon neutrality transition: a system framework using a two-stage dynamic non-radial directional distance function

Given the increasingly severe impacts of global climate change on sustainable development worldwide, countries must accelerate carbon neutrality efforts. While China is the world’s largest carbon emitter, it has made significant reductions in carbon emissions through advancements in renewable energy and enhanced afforestation carbon sinks. The study aims to establish the link between CO2 emission sources and carbon reduction subsystems, and apply the two-stage dynamic non-radial directional distance function to construct a carbon neutrality transition evaluation framework. The main findings present the Carbon Neutrality Transition Efficiency (CNTE) of 30 provincial regions in China during 2013–2021. Regional differences in CNTE have shown a widening gap since 2020: the eastern region exhibits higher Carbon Emission Efficiency (CEE) compared to the western and central regions, yet its Carbon Reduction Efficiency (CRE) remains lower. In addition, the potential for improvement in renewable energy in China has narrowed, whereas that in afforestation carbon sinks has expanded. This study recognizes that financial expenditure and land resource endowment are key factors in improving CNTE. It offers systematic optimization pathways for the government side, including increased financial support and consideration of regional resource endowment differences.