Climate-Resilient F3 Progenies of Coffea arabica: Agronomic Traits and Antibiosis to Hypothenemus hampei

Climate change is expected to reduce coffee yields and intensify infestations by <i>Hypothenemus hampei</i>, the most destructive coffee pest worldwide. Strengthening host plant resistance offers a sustainable approach to mitigate these impacts. This study aimed to characterize F₃ progenies derived from crosses between Castillo^®-a variety with high agronomic performance and resistance to <i>Hemileia vastatrix</i>-and Ethiopian <i>Coffea arabica</i> introductions exhibiting antibiosis to <i>H. hampei</i> for agronomic traits and, for the first time, modeled reductions in <i>H. hampei</i> infestation under projected climate change scenarios. Thirteen F₃ progenies with medium plant stature, rust resistance, and high productivity were selected using a 6 × 7 lattice design. Antibiosis was quantified under controlled conditions by infesting individual coffee beans with a single female borer and validated under field conditions by artificially infesting productive branches with 100 females. Relative to the susceptible control, oviposition decreased by 18.0-25.8% under controlled conditions and by 24.1-69.8% in the field. To anticipate progeny performance under warmer conditions, simulation modeling integrating laboratory and field data under Neutral and El Niño scenarios for the Naranjal and Paraguaicito experimental stations, indicated that progenies exhibiting 34-55% reductions in oviposition would maintain infestation below the economic damage threshold (5%) throughout the eight-month fruit development period. Progenies with the highest antibiosis (55%) would reach the action threshold (2%) only in the seventh month. These findings demonstrate the potential of antibiosis-based resistance to reduce insecticide use and strengthen integrated pest management under projected climate change scenarios.