Integrating Strategic Planning and Scenario Analysis for Enhanced Organizational Resilience in a Volatile Business Environment

Organizations in volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environments—marked by geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and rapid technological change—struggle with traditional strategic planning. This study examines integrating scenario analysis (envisioning multiple plausible futures) to enhance resilience. A qualitative case study across energy, finance, and technology sectors, using interviews, document analysis, and observations, revealed four themes: benefits (improved decision-making, proactive risk mitigation, flexibility), challenges (resource demands, organizational resistance), resilience impacts (anticipating disruptions, cross-functional collaboration), and enhancement opportunities (technology integration, adaptability). Findings emphasize the synergy between adaptive and anticipatory capacities in resilience theory, offering practical strategies. Future research should develop integration frameworks and explore emerging technologies.