Can the Physical Development Trajectories of Rugby League Players at Different Age Groups Inform the Talent Pathway? A Multi‐Club Study of 261 Players

The structure of a talent identification and development system (TIDS), in terms of its starting, entry, and exit points is an important consideration for sporting organisations. Early talent identification decisions can be ineffective due to unpredictable and individually variable talent development. Physical qualities are a key contributor to performance in rugby league. Therefore, understanding physical development differences between age groups can inform the structure of the rugby league TIDS by highlighting key phases of development. Between-player variability in physical development must also be considered to understand the generalisability of age-group trends. Consequently, this study aimed to compare rates of physical development between annual age groups (i.e., U15, 16, 17, 18) in 261 youth rugby league players from multiple clubs, considering individual differences in development rates. Latent growth curve analysis was used to model rates of physical development for size (i.e., height, mass), strength, power, speed, and cardiovascular fitness in each age group. Results showed that U15s had significantly faster rates of development for body size and strength qualities compared with all older age groups, with large between-player variability. No differences were apparent between age groups for power, speed, or cardiovascular fitness. These findings suggest that early talent identification and (de)selection decisions may ignore the potential development of body size and strength qualities, which occurs at individually variable rates. Such findings can inform the structure and design of the rugby league TIDS by highlighting expected rates of physical development based on players' age groups.