Sensitivity analysis of economic and environmental factors in bio-energy supply chains in southwestern Nigeria

This research covers the optimization and sensitivity analysis investigations into the chains of bioenergy supply in southwest Nigeria in relation to production cost and transportation cost, bioethanol and biodigestate production, and environmental impacts. It proposed two models for supply chain issues using linear programming. The first model was on the minimization of transportation cost by considering the local and inter-state utilization of feedstock while the second model considered single and combined feedstock situations that would provide a balance in the economic-environmental objectives. Key parameters studied for sensitivity analysis include transport cost, feedstock availability, and market conditions. Two different scenarios have been used to run the models: the first one with a deterministic approach, the second one introducing uncertainty such as weather conditions and market instability using a probabilistic framework. The data used to perform this assessment were from six locations, namely Osogbo, Abeokuta, and Akure, and applied to determine the cost-effectiveness and efficiency in energy produced. The results prove that the combined-feedstock system is more feasible and sustainable than the single-feedstock system, while Ondo State is ideal to produce bioethanol. Secondly, the probabilistic model evaluated the robustness of the supply chain in the light of uncertainties. A 15–20 % reduction in transportation costs for combined-feedstock systems and a 10–12 % improvement in supply chain resilience under probabilistic modeling are observed. These findings demonstrate the economic and environmental advantages of adaptive feedstock strategies in uncertain conditions. These may provide practical suggestions to enhance production efficiency and sustainability in bioenergy and decision-makers in the elaboration of policies and supply chain optimization.