Improving supply chain resilience in the context of pandemic: A perspective of FMCG industries

The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry—one of the world’s most rapidly expanding sectors—experienced severe supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, exposing critical vulnerabilities in operational and strategic resilience. We employed a hybrid approach combining Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and System Dynamics methods. In the first step, the DEMATEL method was applied to 35 resilience factors, using responses from 26 industry experts to identify and map their cause–effect relationships. DEMATEL classifies three net-cause drivers—contingency planning (influence score Ri–Ci = +2.19), collaboration (+0.52), and geographical integration (+0.15)—and four net-effect factors—cost optimization (–1.39), inventory management (–0.35), information sharing (–0.81), and agility (–0.30). The drivers show moderate overall prominence (Ri + Ci ≈ 19.6–20.3), while certain effect factors—particularly Information Sharing (21.89) and Agility (21.76)—display higher centrality within the resilience network, indicating that strengthening the drivers indirectly enhances these highly connected outcomes. The second step involved developing a System Dynamics (SD) model incorporating variables such as contingency planning, geographical integration, cost optimization, collaboration, inventory management, information sharing, and agility. The model assumed linear interdependencies among these enablers and the cascading effects of disruptions on supply chain performance. The SD simulations reveal how changes in key variables alter the system’s adaptive capacity under shock conditions. The findings guide policymakers and managers in developing resilient supply chain frameworks that can withstand COVID-19-like shocks. Implementing these resilience enablers also enhances overall supply chain performance and operational capabilities.