Contrasting Futures in the Alps: Causal Layered Analysis of the Discourses Guiding Territorial Development

This article applies Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) to four Italian Alpine contexts to examine how narratives and metaphors can shape territorial development. We combined long-term ethnography (approximately 128 days of participant observation) with analysis of documents and media (2010–2025) relating to the four territories and interpreted the results through the four levels of CLA: litanies, systems, worldviews, and myths/metaphors. Two dominant metaphors, “mountain-as-playground” (exogenous) and “mountain-as-heritage” (endogenous), seem to underpin the discourses about tourism and local development. We identify signals of a third metaphor, the “open-hybrid-village”, where multiple forms of belonging and contribution (resident collective ownerships, returnees, extended stay visitors) sustain the local economy and stewardship. The approach is interpretative, and the transferability of results is limited by the selection of cases and the availability of data; however, triangulation and distinct levels support the internal consistency and replicability of the method in other contexts. We conclude that making imaginaries explicit can broaden the variety of thinkable futures and the space of options before investments become dependent on the path taken. We suggest integrating CLA into participatory foresight to enrich and share forward-looking visions on which to negotiate long-term landscape planning and thresholds for tourism carrying capacity.