Aligning Finance with Forests in the Carbon Economy: Measuring the Impact of Green Finance on High-Quality Forestry Development in China, 2010~2023

Forests are crucial for achieving carbon neutrality and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study contributes to SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 15 (Life on Land) by constructing a comprehensive evaluation system for high-quality forestry development (HQDF), integrating economic efficiency, ecological functions, and social benefits. Using provincial panel data for China from 2010 to 2023 and applying two-way fixed effects, panel quantile regression, and instrumental-variable methods, we examine the catalytic role of green finance. The results show that green finance significantly promotes HQDF and displays an inverted U-shaped effect over the development cycle. Regional heterogeneity is marked: the strongest effects appear in western and southern China, moderate effects in central regions, and negative effects in some eastern and northern provinces. Among specific instruments, green investment and green bonds exert the largest positive impacts, followed by green insurance and fiscal funds, while green credit plays an important role at particular stages. These findings provide evidence from a major emerging economy and offer practical guidance for optimizing forestry-related green finance strategies worldwide.