Escalating human exposure to tropical mosquito-borne viruses in Europe

Abstract Human-induced climate change has multiple public health impacts, including the expansion of the geographical range of vector-borne diseases. Pathogens such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses, transmitted by Aedes mosquitos, can cause severe health outcomes ranging from acute febrile illness, chronic joint pain, to birth defects and even death. Evaluating the future risk of human population exposure is therefore crucial as large outbreaks could overwhelm healthcare systems. Europe, one of the fastest warming regions globally, harbours the competent mosquito vector Aedes albopictus in over 20 countries, making tropical Aedes- borne viruses an increasing threat to the continent, which has already experienced local outbreaks over the past two decades. Here we use an ecological niche modelling approach to assess past, present, and future risk of human population exposure to dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses in Europe. Our results show that recent climate change has already increased the potential exposure to these viruses, particularly across the Mediterranean basin, which is a current hotspot for local outbreaks. Major metropolitan areas in Spain, France, Italy, and Croatia are by now located in at-risk areas, and this risk is projected to intensify and expand northward by mid-century. Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, European areas ecologically suitable for Aedes -borne virus circulation could increase by up to ∼70%, leading to an additional ∼50 million people living in areas at risk by the end of the century. These findings underscore the urgent need for strengthened vector and epidemiological surveillance, as well as preparedness strategies across newly suitable regions to anticipate future public health threats associated with these arboviral diseases.

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Publication Details

Journal
bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)
Published
2025-12-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.64898/2025.12.02.691392
Primary Topic
Mosquito-borne diseases and control
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Escalating human exposure to tropical mosquito-borne viruses in Europe

Fabiana Gámbaro, María F. Vincenti‐González, Diana Erazo, Guillaume Ghisbain et al.
bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)
Mosquito-borne diseases and control
article

Escalating human exposure to tropical mosquito-borne viruses in Europe

Fabiana Gámbaro, María F. Vincenti‐González, Diana Erazo, Guillaume Ghisbain, Wim Thiery, Dominik Paprotny, Elena Arsevska, Darlan da Silva Cândido, Dánnell Quesada‐Chacón, Matthias Mengel, Simon Dellicour, Raphaëlle Klitting, Daniele Da Re, Rosa Pietroiusti, Cedric Marsboom, Kyla Serres, Augustin Jacques de Dixmude
article en

Abstract

Abstract Human-induced climate change has multiple public health impacts, including the expansion of the geographical range of vector-borne diseases. Pathogens such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses, transmitted by Aedes mosquitos, can cause severe health outcomes ranging from acute febrile illness, chronic joint pain, to birth defects and even death. Evaluating the future risk of human population exposure is therefore crucial as large outbreaks could overwhelm healthcare systems. Europe, one of the fastest warming regions globally, harbours the competent mosquito vector Aedes albopictus in over 20 countries, making tropical Aedes- borne viruses an increasing threat to the continent, which has already experienced local outbreaks over the past two decades. Here we use an ecological niche modelling approach to assess past, present, and future risk of human population exposure to dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses in Europe. Our results show that recent climate change has already increased the potential exposure to these viruses, particularly across the Mediterranean basin, which is a current hotspot for local outbreaks. Major metropolitan areas in Spain, France, Italy, and Croatia are by now located in at-risk areas, and this risk is projected to intensify and expand northward by mid-century. Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, European areas ecologically suitable for Aedes -borne virus circulation could increase by up to ∼70%, leading to an additional ∼50 million people living in areas at risk by the end of the century. These findings underscore the urgent need for strengthened vector and epidemiological surveillance, as well as preparedness strategies across newly suitable regions to anticipate future public health threats associated with these arboviral diseases.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)
Fondazione Edmund Mach (IT), University of Szczecin (PL), Royal Museum for Central Africa (BE), University of Mons (BE), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (FR), Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE), University of Antwerp (BE), Inserm (FR), Aix-Marseille Université (FR), Rega Institute for Medical Research (BE), Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR), Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques et Ecosystèmes (FR), Laboratoire National de Référence (MA), Province of Antwerp (BE), Avia-GIS (Belgium) (BE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), Imperial College London (GB), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE), KU Leuven (BE)
European Commission, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS, Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, Vlaamse regering
Openalex Percentile: Top 50%
Mosquito-borne diseases and control
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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