An Integrated Machine Learning-Based Framework for Road Roughness Severity Classification and Predictive Maintenance Planning in Urban Transportation System

Recent advances in vibration-based pavement assessment have enabled the low-cost monitoring of road conditions using inertial sensors and machine learning models. However, most studies focus on isolated tasks, such as roughness classification, without integrating statistical validation, anomaly detection, or maintenance prioritization. This study presents a unified framework for road roughness severity classification and predictive maintenance using multi-axis accelerometer data collected from urban road networks in Pretoria, South Africa. The proposed pipeline integrates ISO-referenced labeling, ensemble and deep classifiers (Random Forest, XGBoost, MLP, and 1D-CNN), McNemar’s test for model agreement validation, feature importance interpretation, and GIS-based anomaly mapping. Stratified cross-validation and hyperparameter tuning ensured robust generalization, with accuracies exceeding 99%. Statistical outlier detection enabled the early identification of deteriorated segments, supporting proactive maintenance planning. The results confirm that vertical acceleration (accel_z) is the most discriminative signal for roughness severity, validating the feasibility of lightweight single-axis sensing. The study concludes that combining supervised learning with statistical anomaly detection can provide an intelligent, scalable, and cost-effective foundation for municipal pavement management systems. The modular design further supports integration with Internet-of-Things (IoT) telematics platforms for near-real-time road condition monitoring and sustainable transport asset management.