Identification of critical changes in the dynamics of the number of cyber incidents as an indicator for forecasting the occurrence of crisis situations in the defense department

The article presents a scientifically grounded approach to assessing the current state of cyber resilience of the defense agency, based on the analysis of statistical data regarding the number of recorded cyber incidents. The proposed methodology employs methods of linear algebra and statistical analysis to identify patterns and dynamic changes in the development of cyber threats. This makes it possible to determine moments of critical deviation that may indicate a decrease in cyber resilience or an increased likelihood of crisis situations in cyberspace. The obtained results provide a scientific foundation for improving cyber defense assessment processes, risk forecasting, and the development of an effective decision-making framework in the field of cybersecurity for the defense sector. Special attention is devoted to developing an algorithmic approach for identifying critical moments within time series of cyber incident indicators, enabling timely response to variations in the threat landscape and the adaptive adjustment of cybersecurity measures according to current conditions. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating analytical methods into information security monitoring systems to enhance the efficiency of detecting and preventing cyberattacks. This research represents the first stage in the development of a comprehensive methodology for assessing cyber resilience and forecasting risks for the defense agency in accordance with its legally defined area of responsibility. It also establishes a basis for further development of mechanisms to counteract crisis phenomena in cyberspace. The practical significance of the results lies in strengthening the effectiveness of managerial decision-making, ensuring early threat detection, minimizing the negative consequences of cyber incidents, and maintaining an adequate level of situational awareness among the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and the Armed Forces of Ukraine.