The Resilience Trilemma in Grain Supply Chain: Unpacking Spatiotemporal Trade-Offs Across Production–Consumption Zones from the Case of China

This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of China’s grain supply chain resilience and regional disparities from 2012 to 2022, employing provincial data and a multidimensional framework encompassing resistance capacity, adaptive adjustment capacity, and innovation-driven transition capacity, and utilizing entropy weight method, kernel density estimation, convergence models and barrier factor analysis with GIS (v10.8,2) visualization. The results reveal a fluctuating upward trajectory in the composite resilience index. However, spatial heterogeneity persists as Major Grain-Producing Areas demonstrate high resistance capacity but lag in transformation due to path dependency, Major Grain-Consuming Areas excel in innovation yet face vulnerability from import dependence, and Grain Self-Sufficient Areas display rapid adaptive capacity growth but spatial polarization intensifies. Theil index decomposition confirmed that inter-regional disparities dominated, reflecting uneven technological diffusion and institutional priorities. Key drivers include natural endowments, infrastructure investments, and digitalization, though threshold effects in policy regulation and path dependency paradoxes constrain convergence. This study advances a dynamic governance framework to balance resilience trade-offs and align supply chain modernization with sustainable food security goals.