Numerical Assessment of the Long-Term Dredging Impacts on Channel Evolution in the Middle Huai River

Large-scale dredging in the middle Huai River has induced complex geomorphic responses that compromise the long-term stability of river regulation infrastructure. To evaluate these impacts, a one-dimensional numerical model was employed, calibrated and validated using field measurements and physical modeling, to simulate 30-year channel evolution under both baseline and dredged scenarios. Results indicate that dredging reversed the reach-scale sediment budget from net erosion (69.80 × 104 m3) to net deposition (87.67 × 104 m3), while eliciting highly heterogeneous local responses. In the Liufangdi Reach, dredging produced a tripartite pattern: depositional amplification in the south branch of the Upper-Liufangdi Reach, an erosion-to-deposition transition in the Erdaohe Reach, and intensified erosion in the north branch of the Lower-Liufangdi Reach. The main channel accounted for over 84% of net volumetric changes, driving the observed morphological adjustments, while dredging promoted synchronization between main channel and floodplain evolution and established stable flow redistribution within branching channels. These findings indicate the importance of implementing spatially differentiated dredging strategies informed by sediment availability, offering critical guidance for reconciling flood control objectives with long-term morphological stability in engineered river systems.