One Model Fits All? Evaluating Bankruptcy Prediction Across Different Economic Periods

Financial distress prediction models are widely used to support risk management. However, economic turbulence, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can disrupt the relationships between financial indicators and distress, thus threatening the stability and accuracy of the models’ predictions. In this study, the stability of bankruptcy prediction models is examined on a large sample of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Slovakia. Three periods are distinguished: the pre-pandemic years 2018–2019, the COVID-19 pandemic years 2020–2021, and the post-pandemic recovery years 2022–2023. Two approaches to model construction are compared: separate models are estimated for each period, and a single comprehensive model covering all three periods is constructed with a period-specific indicator among the predictors. Publicly available financial data and machine learning methods are employed, and model performance is evaluated using common classification metrics. Differences in performance are revealed, indicating whether period-specific models provide superior predictive accuracy or whether a universal model can adapt to changing economic conditions. The robustness, stability, predictive power, and practical applicability of both approaches are assessed, and the influence of economic fluctuations on accuracy is demonstrated. The findings provide guidance on selecting modelling strategies across different economic environments and offer recommendations for further developing and implementing predictive models in volatile financial conditions.