Spatial distribution and conservation strategy of the Adansonia digitata L. in the conditions of climate change and parasitism by Analeptes trifasciata F. in Togo

Baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) is a multiple-use species of high socio-economic importance in tropical Africa. It faces anthropogenic, climatic and parasitic pressures that are likely to affect its sustainability. This study provides new elements for more effective baobab management in the context of climate and global change in Togo. Specifically, it aims to: (i) determine the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of A. digitata and A. trifasciata, and (ii) identify priority areas for the conservation and sustainable use of A. digitata co-products in the face of climate change and parasitism in Togo. The algorithm based on the maximum entropy of the baobab was developed in order to model potential habitats. Modelling was based on 17 environmental variables and occurrences of A. digitata and its parasite, Analeptes trifasciata in West Africa. The algorithm of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used. Forecasts were performed for SSP 126 and SSP 585 scenarios. Habitats were prioritised for conservation by combining current and future models using Zonation software. Currently, A. digitata and to A. trifasciata are predicted to occupy about 80.1 % and 91 % of the Togolese territory, respectively. By 2055, about 50 % of the highly favourable habitat for A. digitata will have been lost due to unfavourable habitat. This decline is greater in the SSP 585 scenario than SSP 126 scenario. It is recommended to implement an integrated pest management strategy and to introduce A. digitata in the most favourable areas, considering the spatial distribution of the parasite. Conservation of A. digitata must take into account areas suitable for its growth, development and reproduction. In situ conservation in agroforestry systems and home gardens should be promoted for the sustainable use of A. digitata by-products in Togo.