Narrative Co-Evolution in Hybrid Social Networks: A Longitudinal Computational Analysis of Confucius Institutes

This study investigates the complex dynamics of public discourse surrounding Confucius Institutes (CIs) across the hybrid social networks of mainstream news and social platforms from 2010 to 2023. Employing a longitudinal, multi-platform design, we analyzed news articles and tweets using a computational framework combining topic modeling and sentiment analysis. Our results reveal a shared cross-platform narrative evolution from a "culture-first" to a "politics-central" orientation. However, the trajectory differed significantly: mainstream media underwent a gradual, policy-oriented shift, while social media exhibited an abrupt, nonlinear transition. Crucially, we identify an asymmetric interdependence: Twitter sentiment reliably Granger-causes mainstream media sentiment, establishing its role as a leading indicator, and systematic asymmetries in thematic framing reflect the divergent logics of each platform. The study demonstrates that public discourse on contested, state-linked institutions operates as a complex adaptive system, where bottom-up affective reactions and top-down editorial processes continuously interact in a dynamic equilibrium, ultimately co-constructing a fragmented public understanding.