Detrended Cross-Correlations and Their Random Matrix Limit: An Example from the Cryptocurrency Market

Correlations in complex systems are often obscured by nonstationarity, long-range memory, and heavy-tailed fluctuations, which limit the usefulness of traditional covariance-based analyses. To address these challenges, we construct scale- and fluctuation-dependent correlation matrices using the multifractal detrended cross-correlation coefficient ρr that selectively emphasizes fluctuations of different amplitudes. We examine the spectral properties of these detrended correlation matrices and compare them to the spectral properties of the matrices calculated in the same way from synthetic Gaussian and <i>q</i>-Gaussian signals. Our results show that detrending, heavy tails, and the fluctuation-order parameter <i>r</i> jointly produce spectra, which substantially depart from the random case even under the absence of cross-correlations in time series. Applying this framework to one-minute returns of 140 major cryptocurrencies from 2021 to 2024 reveals robust collective modes, including a dominant market factor and several sectoral components whose strength depends on the analyzed scale and fluctuation order. After filtering out the market mode, the empirical eigenvalue bulk aligns closely with the limit of random detrended cross-correlations, enabling clear identification of structurally significant outliers. Overall, the study provides a refined spectral baseline for detrended cross-correlations and offers a promising tool for distinguishing genuine interdependencies from noise in complex, nonstationary, heavy-tailed systems.

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Publication Details

Journal
Entropy
Published
2025-12-06
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/e27121236
Primary Topic
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Detrended Cross-Correlations and Their Random Matrix Limit: An Example from the Cryptocurrency Market

Marcin Wątorek, Paweł Jarosz, Stanisław Drożdż, Jarosław Kwapień et al.
Entropy
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
article

Detrended Cross-Correlations and Their Random Matrix Limit: An Example from the Cryptocurrency Market

Marcin Wątorek, Paweł Jarosz, Stanisław Drożdż, Jarosław Kwapień, Maria Skupień
article en

Abstract

Correlations in complex systems are often obscured by nonstationarity, long-range memory, and heavy-tailed fluctuations, which limit the usefulness of traditional covariance-based analyses. To address these challenges, we construct scale- and fluctuation-dependent correlation matrices using the multifractal detrended cross-correlation coefficient ρr that selectively emphasizes fluctuations of different amplitudes. We examine the spectral properties of these detrended correlation matrices and compare them to the spectral properties of the matrices calculated in the same way from synthetic Gaussian and <i>q</i>-Gaussian signals. Our results show that detrending, heavy tails, and the fluctuation-order parameter <i>r</i> jointly produce spectra, which substantially depart from the random case even under the absence of cross-correlations in time series. Applying this framework to one-minute returns of 140 major cryptocurrencies from 2021 to 2024 reveals robust collective modes, including a dominant market factor and several sectoral components whose strength depends on the analyzed scale and fluctuation order. After filtering out the market mode, the empirical eigenvalue bulk aligns closely with the limit of random detrended cross-correlations, enabling clear identification of structurally significant outliers. Overall, the study provides a refined spectral baseline for detrended cross-correlations and offers a promising tool for distinguishing genuine interdependencies from noise in complex, nonstationary, heavy-tailed systems.

EntropyVol. 27(12)
Uniwersytet Komisji Edukacji Narodowej w Krakowie (PL), Cracow University of Technology (PL), Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences (PL)
Openalex Percentile: Top 54%
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
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