Intra-urban dualism and development control in land-use transformation: Geospatial insights from Kisii town, Kenya

Urbanisation across sub-Saharan Africa is transforming the spatial structure of secondary towns, often generating uneven and fragmented growth. A key manifestation of this process is intra-urban dualism, where well-planned, affluent neighbourhoods coexist with densely populated, poorly regulated settlements. This spatial divide undermines orderly growth, deepens inequality, and places pressure on urban infrastructure. In Kenya, intra-urban dualism is increasingly evident, yet limited research has explored how it influences land-use transformation and sustainable development. Addressing this research gap is essential to understand how spatial inequalities shape urban growth trajectories and to guide equitable planning interventions. This study examines intra-urban dualism and land-use transformation in Kisii town, western Kenya, focusing on the contrasting neighbourhoods of Milimani (a low-density planned area) and Jogoo (a high-density unregulated settlement). Land-use and land-cover changes from 2005 to 2024 were analysed and projected to 2044, using ArcGIS Pro and QGIS. Building density, plot size compliance, and coverage ratios were quantified and validated through a one-sample t-test. Results show that Milimani has largely retained its planned form, whereas Jogoo has undergone rapid, unregulated densification driven by weak development control and fragmented land ownership. The study recommends data-driven, geospatially informed development control supported by adaptive zoning, participatory monitoring, blockchain-based permitting, and resilience audits to promote sustainable, inclusive, and transparent urban growth.