504 PS 1: Natural disasters, health outcomes and settlement intentions among migrants: evidence from nationwide surveys in China (2009-2018)

Abstract PS 1: Climate Change and Health – ‘Examining the impact of climate change on migration patterns and health outcomes’ - Patricia Schwerdtle and Jiming Zhu, Auditorium A & B (Rectory), September 3, 2025, 11:00 - 12:00 The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters pose mounting challenges to social stability, public infrastructure, and public health. Migrants are particularly vulnerable, often facing disproportionate health risks and reduced access to health care following disaster exposure, which may diminish their willingness to settle in urban areas and undermine sustainable urbanization. While previous research has primarily focused on economic losses and social relations disruptions associated with natural disasters, there remains limited empirical evidence on the health-related pathways linking natural disasters to migrants’ settlement intentions. This study investigates the mediating role of health deterioration in the relationship between disaster exposure and settlement intentions among migrants in China. Utilizing data from (1) the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (2009–2018), encompassing nearly 1.2 million individuals, and (2) the official national meteorological disaster records, we construct comprehensive health indicators, including self-rated health, chronic conditions/disabilities, and healthcare accessibility. Measures of settlement intention and residential duration are also incorporated. A dynamic model is employed to assess the long-term health effects of disaster exposure, while structural equation modelling (SEM) is used to examine the mediating role of health in shaping migrants’ settlement decisions. Our findings are expected to provide public health-oriented evidence to inform policy efforts aimed at migrant integration, equitable urban development, and more resilient disaster response systems.